Iran - There Is No Viable Regime Change Without Justice For All The Victims, Including Those Of US-Israeli Strikes. The Shajareh Tayyebeh Girls’ Elementary School Incident.

by Achille Campagna

San Marino, 6 March 2026 / Day one of the conflict, 28 February, has been hailed by Donald Trump as a day of achievements, successful strikes, projection of power, and a message to the Iranian people: step up, overthrow your regime.

But day one could not escape its fate, just like any other war, and once again it was a day of tragedy, with 100 angels, 100 little girls aged between 7 and 12 killed under an airstrike after starting their day at school, the Shajareh Tayyebeh Girls’ Elementary School. The overall casualties of the incidents are higher, on top of more civilian victims made across the country on day one.

That adds to the picture of what wars’ ‘day-ones’ look like, a stark reminder for everyone that initiating a war is never a success.

I’ve been working extensively on aerial attacks in Ukraine, I can see that the case, as per the media reporting, makes sense, in that Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s barracks have been targeted, namely, a comprehensive military compound that once included the school building, which was apparently repurposed and separated in 2016. The authors of the strike - I opine - relied on inaccurate information, ignoring the presence of a working school. The accounts point, therefore, at a mistake in the overall targeting process, and I have no reasons to believe that the US or the Israelis did this on purpose, it would simply be foolish. It would be foolish because cases like this remain forever, they turn people against you, make you lose the communication war, and decrease the chances for belligerents to win the population their side.

Even if prima-facie evidence is confirmed, that does not excuse belligerents from facing their responsibility for the mistake, and the incident deserves proper investigation. At some point, those families will have to hear from the US and Israel that they made a mistake, that they investigated any possible responsibility, that they are being compensated, though no compensation can make up for the loss of a daughter. A country must be ready to apologize, to plead guilty when it is right to do so.

Sure, the brutality of the Iranian regime cannot be understated; we have witnessed – almost powerless - the relentless execution of dissidents along the decades, as well as the most recent killing and previous firing in the eyes during protests. Iran is a theocratic state with nuclear capabilities. And what is the rule of law in a theocracy? Yet all of this cannot justify further atrocities against the civilians, we cannot double down on them to put an end to the regime or whatever the end result that is sought in this conflict.

With this said and raised, yet the US and Israel’s time will quickly run out respecting many goals, one of them being a strong sign that they will deliver justice to the families of all the victims, or risk wiping out any legitimacy in what they do, first and foremost before the eyes of the Iranian people.  

The US and Israel should not underestimate the meaning of such a gesture for the Iranians on both sides of isle, both pro and anti-regime, within the country. Iranians are ready to suffer and sacrifice their lives on a scale that we, in the West, grossly underestimate, the conflict could further radicalize them against the US and Israel, even alienate those who were ready to rise against the regime. It is not only a moral imperative and a legal obligation to uphold accountability, but also a sound strategic conduct for the US and Israel to preserve their credibility before the Iranians and their families.

Similarly, justice must be made for the crimes committed by the regime since 1979. But, while there is certainly no shortage of advocates for that line of cases, chances are outside of Iran little interest will materialize for victims of the current conflict.

Although the Shajareh Tayyebeh school incident could not go unnoticed, and obviously international media covered it, as well as the UN and civil society, the US and Israel are devoting little attention to the matter, which is a significant mistake. Eluding the issue, along with the broader question of victims it symbolizes, will not contribute to projecting their power, addressing it would instead rebuild their credibility in the eye of those they are calling to overthrow the regime.

With the 3 belligerent countries outside the ICC jurisdiction, one of them being a Security Council permanent member, with a right to veto any referral to the earlier, no international tribunal seems to stand much of a chance to be able to adjudicate on war crimes committed within Iran’s current conflict. It all lies in the hands of the US and Israeli’s institutions; it’s up to them to deliver justice.

The Iranian People should not be failed, for they have a right not to be forgotten.